Agriculture a cause for worry for India, sliding protection a risk, says economist Pravin Krishna

Commerce minister Piyush Goyal also shared this tale earlier this week that a US-India bilateral trade deal is set to be concluded by December this year.

India's challenges in liberalizing the agrifood industry in free trade agreements are "important," and a protection sliding scale--to be eliminated over a period of time--could be an option in negotiations with the US, says Johns Hopkins University economist Pravin Krishna.

Krishna, Distinguished Professor of International Economics and Business at Johns Hopkins University, who was in Delhi for the Kautilya Economic Conclave, 2025, told Fortune India that every country, including India, has its own fears on topics like these.

"I do agree that Indian agriculture is an exposed sector. It is a large sector. Poor livelihoods depend on the sector," Krishna told Fortune India.

"And this is a big worry for India. The question is, how do we respond to it? To what degree do we insulate the farmers?" Krishna said.

He suggests a sliding scale of protection only for farming for a period of time. "We must have a sliding scale of protection where we sign the deal now and say in 15 or 20 years, the sliding scale of protection can progressively be withdrawn. This way, nobody has time to make arrangements," he said in a Fortune India interview.

"The other option is to exclude agriculture altogether. And negotiate on everything else. So I believe, in theory, everything's on the table. So one can negotiate," Krishna said.

"So, how does one deal with that real economic moral question, while doing the other things, is a question that the government must consider," Krishna said.

India-US trade talks resumed after they were suspended following the action by the Trump administration to impose a 50% import tariff on Indian products. This includes 25% punitive tariffs on the purchase of Russian oil.

The US wants access to India's dairy and agricultural market, which is not acceptable to the Indian side. Official negotiations collapsed in August this year when the US called off a visit by a trade delegation towards the end of August.

Optimism for trade progress in talks between trading counterparts was rekindled as Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday backed the U.S.-brokered trade deal between Israel and Hamas and also called U.S. President Donald Trump.

"SPOKE to my friend, President Trump and congratulated him on the success of the historic Gaza peace plan. Also reviewed the good progress achieved in trade negotiations. Agreed to stay in close touch over the coming weeks," Modi wrote in an X post.

On Tuesday, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal also mentioned that a US-India bilateral trade agreement is likely to be finalized by December this year.