The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially confirmed the onset of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, raising concerns over the performance of the ongoing southwest monsoon and the possibility of below-normal rainfall across parts of the country.
In its latest El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) bulletin, the weather agency said sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have crossed the El Niño threshold, with atmospheric conditions also responding to the warming trend.
“Currently, El Niño conditions are present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen further during the southwest monsoon season,” the IMD said. According to the agency, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system now exhibits characteristics consistent with a developing El Niño event.
The confirmation follows a similar assessment by the Japan Meteorological Agency earlier this week, which reported that El Niño conditions had emerged in both the ocean and atmosphere over the Pacific.
The development comes against the backdrop of a weaker monsoon forecast for 2026. In its revised seasonal outlook issued on May 29, the IMD projected monsoon rainfall at 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm, lower than its earlier estimate of 92 per cent. The forecast also indicated a 60 per cent probability of deficient rainfall during the season.
Meteorologists note that El Niño, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is historically associated with weaker monsoons in India. The phenomenon often results in reduced rainfall, delayed monsoon progression and increased heat stress across several regions.
The IMD said a La Niña phase that persisted from August 2025 to February 2026 ended earlier this year, with neutral conditions prevailing from March through May. However, by June, ocean temperatures had risen sufficiently for El Niño conditions to develop.
Forecast models indicate that warming over the Pacific is likely to intensify during the coming months, with moderate to strong El Niño conditions expected through much of the monsoon season. Meanwhile, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are forecast to continue, limiting the possibility of offsetting El Niño's influence.
While the monsoon has advanced into more parts of eastern India, including West Bengal and Bihar, meteorologists caution that its future progress and rainfall distribution could be affected if El Niño strengthens further. The development is being closely monitored due to its implications for agriculture, water resources, food production and rural livelihoods across the country.