NITI Aayog report: Crop diversification and diet shifts crucial for India’s net-zero journey

Agriculture sits at the complex intersection of India’s Viksit Bharat aspirations and its net-zero ambition. As the backbone of the rural economy, the sector supports 46 per cent of the workforce, ensures national food security and contributes about 14 per cent to Gross Value Added (GVA).

A NITI Aayog report, however, warned that this foundational role — characterised by the dominance of small and marginal farmers — is increasingly threatened by climate change, soil degradation and acute water stress.

The report, among other things, revealed that farming is responsible for almost 14% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in India. Methane and nitrous oxide from both livestock and soils are the main drivers. It said that climate change mitigation in the agriculture sector is a must, have for the implementation of the Viksit Bharat concept.

It described the methods for reducing emissions and simultaneously ensuring the availability of sufficient food, safeguarding farmers income and meeting climate goals, and it further elaborated on the extent that various changes in crops, livestock, and farming systems would be required.

Changing the diet from rice, which requires a lot of water and energy, to millets that are more tolerant to climate changes not only helps to lower the emissions but also the adaption capacity is improved. This could be supported by behaviour-change initiatives such as the Eat Right Movement and the National Millet Mission (NMM),” the report stated.

The government’s think tank further noted that for such transitions to scale without compromising farmer incomes or food and nutritional security, the state must deploy “phased”, “spatially targeted” and “socio-economically differentiated” roadmaps, particularly for expanding natural and chemical-free farming interventions.

“Consequently, agriculture in India cannot be approached through a narrow mitigation-centric lens. The priority is safeguarding productivity, farmers’ incomes and food and nutritional security. This will require a focus on measures that build resilience to climate change,” it said.

Economist Akash Jindal has noted that crop diversification might be a very important strategy, where farmers abandon monoculture systems of rice, wheat, or sugarcane, and move to high value crops such as horticulture and oilseeds or nutri, cereals as a climate adaptation measure.

"The switch can definitely raise farm incomes by lowering risk and elevating the value of each hectare, plus it can also improve nutritional security, " he said. It yields mitigation co-benefits as greenhouse gas emissions per hectare decline when farmers move from input-intensive monocultures to more diversified cropping systems,” he said.

The report also highlighted the role of Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) in generating data-driven insights for decision-making and navigating the complex interdependencies between climate, agriculture and socio-economic systems.

“For example, dietary shifts towards healthier diets could reduce India’s emissions by 60 per cent compared to the baseline. A robust IAM assessment, calibrated to India’s national context, can integrate supply-side interventions with demand-side dynamics, while quantifying trade-offs such as land-use competition between food security, afforestation goals and the needs of other land-dependent sectors,” it underlined.

Scaling natural farming in rain-fed areas for more equitable and sustainable agricultural growth was another key recommendation in the report as India moves closer to its net-zero goal.

Rain-fed agriculture covers 51 per cent of the country’s net sown area and contributes 40 per cent of food production. It is characterised by low productivity, low input use and monsoon-dependent yield volatility.

These regions face acute climate risks while supporting 81 per cent of the rural poor, including marginal, tribal and smallholder farmers.

Natural farming was highlighted as a low, risk, high, reward option for these locations in the report.

Adopting such methods could lead to better productivity, increased yields and profitability, as well as getting healthier and more nutritious diets since most farmers eat what they grow.

Besides that, it helps in stabilizing and making rain fed farming systems more resilient by restoring the soil and encouraging the use of climate resilient practices.

According to the report, the National Mission on Natural Farming (NMNF) gives priority to the rain fed areas for the scale up.