Easy Paper, Tougher Race: Experts Predict NEET 2026 Cut-Off Surge Despite More MBBS Seats

The National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (NEET-UG) 2026 may have felt easier for many candidates—but that could come at a cost. Experts are now predicting a rise in qualifying cut-offs across categories, driven by a combination of a simpler paper and record participation.

Held on May 3, the exam saw a massive turnout, with 22,05,035 candidates appearing across 37 states and Union Territories—an attendance rate of 96.92%. Students and coaching institutes largely described the paper as more accessible than last year. Biology was considered straightforward and closely aligned with NCERT textbooks, Chemistry was balanced, while Physics remained relatively challenging due to numerical complexity. Overall, however, the paper was perceived as easier than 2025, setting the stage for higher competition at the top.

This shift in difficulty has led to varying cut-off predictions from major coaching players. Institutes like Aakash Institute and Physics Wallah estimate the general category cut-off to fall between 135 and 138 marks. In contrast, Motion Education has projected a higher lower-end threshold of around 144 marks. For reserved categories such as OBC, SC, and ST, Aakash and PW suggest a range of 107–137, while Motion places it higher at 113–143—indicating a likely increase of 5–10 marks compared to last year.

These differences reflect how each institute weighs factors like subject difficulty, candidate performance distribution, and overall competition. However, the consensus remains clear: cut-offs are expected to rise.

A look at recent trends supports this outlook. General category cut-offs have fluctuated over the past few years—from 720–137 in 2023 to 686–144 in 2025—largely influenced by exam difficulty and the number of test-takers. In 2026, despite the addition of nearly 11,000 MBBS seats nationwide, the sheer scale of participation means competition is unlikely to ease significantly.

Experts caution that an increase in seats does not automatically translate into lower cut-offs, especially in high-stakes exams like NEET where demand far outpaces supply. A larger candidate pool combined with an easier paper often pushes scores upward, tightening the race for top ranks.

For students, this creates a mixed scenario. If cut-offs rise as predicted, those on the borderline may need to consider private or deemed universities, balancing affordability with career goals. On the other hand, if actual cut-offs settle closer to the lower-end estimates, more candidates could secure government medical seats—particularly with the expanded intake.

In either case, experts stress the importance of early preparation for counselling. Keeping documents ready, tracking seat matrices, and understanding college preferences will be crucial in navigating the next phase.

The takeaway is clear: while the paper may have been easier, the competition is only getting tougher.