Super El Niño Likely to Develop, Raising Heatwave and Monsoon Concerns for India

Oceanic and atmospheric signals are starting to line up and indicate that El Nio conditions will strengthen by June, according to the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predictions. The pattern of the ocean and atmosphere development that has been seen so far is one of the "classic" El Nio features with sea surface warming in and near the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean and the changes in the atmospheric circulation that go along with it.

Normally, the trade winds push the warm ocean waters towards Southeast Asia which causes the cold waters to rise near South America. When El Nio occurs, these winds are weakened resulting in the warm water spreading eastward. This causes a disruption of the global weather systems with the Pacific region experiencing more rainfall and parts of Asia such as India having hotter and drier conditions.

In India, these types of events are typically associated with a weaker southwest monsoon and more heatwaves. The monsoon relies on the difference in temperature between the land and the ocean to bring moisture-laden winds. Unfortunately, El Nio can diminish this gradient thereby reducing the rainfall and increasing the risk of drought in several areas.

Experts of climate warn that if a powerful el nino arises, India could be hit by two extremes at once - very high temperatures in the northern and central regions and below-normal amounts of rain during the monsoon. This would impact farming, the availability of water and people's health.

The record breaking warm global temperatures and drastic changes in the climate which occurred with the El Nio events (199798, 201516) made scientists very concerned. They point out that a similar El Nio event coupled with the present global warming scenario might result in intensity of climate extremes becoming more violent.

The pattern of the development of the event in the world at large is capable of decreasing the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic but at the same time raising the number of cyclones in the western Pacific. Even though how strong the event will be is not yet clear, the signs are there that a big climate occasion is taking place and so is likely to impact India and some other parts of the world in the following months.